Socio-Economic Forecasts

As part of the development of the2045 Transitions Metropolitan Transportation Plan, MRMPO staff produce a socioeconomic estimate for a base year (2020) and a socioeconomic forecast for a horizon year (2045). These datasets include population, housing, and employment by sector for various geographic areas including the region, counties, and small areas called Data Analysis Subzones (DASZ). DASZs represent small units of planning geography that are compatible with MRCOG's transportation model. The DASZ datasets are available for download at the bottom of this page.

Access the Socioeconomic Forecast interactive map for the Mid Region of New Mexico

About the Forecast

The forecasting process begins with a high-level regional forecast (Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance, Valencia, and Southern Santa Fe Counties) for population and employment which is then allocated to small level DASZ forecast.

The regional projection for population is based on county-level population projections developed by the University of New Mexico’s Geospatial Population Studies (GPS). The regional employment projection was developed by MRCOG using a combination of sources including University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) and a locally customized Regional Economic Model (REMI).

The DASZ level forecast is developed with the assistance of a land use simulation modelling system (UrbanSim) that is estimated and calibrated specifically for the MRCOG region. Inputs include existing population (census and ESRI), employment (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages), land use inventories, building permits, development review cases, local plans (including sector plans, area plans, master plans, etc.), local zoning regulation (including allowable uses and densities), vacancy rates, building square footage, undevelopable lands, and information collected through developer and planner interviews.

Forecast Presentation

  1. 1 MTP 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Presentation (1_)
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Download the 2025 Forecast Presentation (PDF)

Forecast Downloads

Below are downloadable excel tables of the forecast for both the region and individual counties. There is also a data dictionary. For any questions, please contact Aaron Hill.